Plastic pollution is accumulating faster than previously understood, but there is a technically feasible path to reverse course by 2040, according to a new analysis from Pew Charitable Trusts and partners.
The report, “Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025: An Assessment of the Global System and Strategies for Transformative Change,” finds that without swift, system-level intervention, plastic pollution will more than double over the next 15 years. By 2040, the volume of plastic entering the environment would be equivalent to nearly one garbage truck every second, driven by production growth that far outpaces waste management capacity. Plastic production is projected to increase by 52 percent over that period, overwhelming already stressed collection and disposal systems.
“This research shows that the impacts of plastic extend far beyond just waste in the environment. Plastic has been found throughout people’s bodies and is increasingly linked to serious health risks, including heart disease, asthma and cancer,” Winnie Lau, who leads Pew’s work to reduce plastic pollution, said in a statement. “The good news is that we already have the tools to fix this problem.”
The research quantifies the stakes. Health impacts linked to plastic production and waste are expected to rise by 75 percent by 2040, while plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions would increase by 58 percent, largely from new polymer production. If the global plastic system were treated as a country, it would rank as the world’s third-largest emitter by 2040. Microplastic pollution alone is projected to grow by more than 50 percent, becoming the dominant form of plastic pollution in high-income economies.
At the same time, the report emphasizes that existing solutions, if implemented at scale, could cut plastic pollution by 83 percent by 2040 and nearly eliminate pollution from plastic packaging. These measures would also deliver a 38 percent reduction in plastic-related emissions, a 54 percent drop in health impacts, savings of US$19 billion per year in government waste management costs, and the creation of 8.6 million jobs. While known interventions could reduce microplastic pollution by 41 percent, the authors note that additional innovation will be required to address remaining sources.
Four priorities for action
The report points to four priority areas for action. First, plastic production and use must be reduced through policies that reflect the true environmental and health costs of plastic, phase out unnecessary and low-value products, and limit new production.
Second, chemicals, products, and systems need to be redesigned to support safer materials, reusable models, simpler polymers, and reduced microplastic emissions, while accelerating innovation through standards and public–private collaboration.
Third, waste management systems must be expanded and made more inclusive by scaling collection and recycling, integrating informal waste workers into formal systems, and investing in infrastructure that prevents plastic and microplastics from leaking into the environment.
Finally, greater transparency across the plastic supply chain is essential, including stronger data disclosure, chemical reporting, and research into health and environmental impacts, particularly for vulnerable communities.
Taken together, these measures could sharply cut plastic pollution within the next 15 years, nearly eliminate pollution from plastic packaging, and deliver broader benefits for public health, climate action, and livelihoods worldwide, the researchers say.
Delays may carry steep costs, according to the report. A five-year lag in implementation would allow an additional 540 million metric tons of plastic to enter the environment, add US$27 billion annually to government waste budgets, and lock in investment in outdated infrastructure.
A systemic challenge
Partners involved in the research stress that the challenge is systemic, but solvable.
“By redesigning how we make, use and reuse materials, we can create millions of better jobs, support local economies and lift people out of poverty, while also dramatically reducing pollution and emissions. This is the kind of systemic change that benefits everyone – people, nature and business alike,” Yoni Shiran, partner and plastics lead at Systemiq, says.
From a technical perspective, innovation and inclusive system design are essential. Dr. Costas Velis of Imperial College London emphasized that solutions must be grounded in science and equity, noting that informal workers such as waste pickers play a critical role in effective waste management systems. Sander Defruyt of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation added that while progress has been made, “the problem has been outpacing the solutions on a global scale,” and that scaling known interventions will require strong policy signals and coordinated industry action.
For engineers and sustainability professionals, the report frames plastic pollution as a systems engineering challenge, one that can still be solved with decisive, collaborative action using tools already within reach.
